Now Brexit risk is a reality: what investors should consider
Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets considers five core issues: 1) Were the hedges high enough? ; 2) Sterling's movements; 3) Ready for interest rate cuts? ; 4) A reduced appetite for risk? ; Watch the “symptoms” not the system?
You know you’ve arrived as an industry, an issue or a political candidate when you find yourself subject to the satirical potshots of the likes of expat talk show hosts (John Oliver), Twitter battles that pit the new Sherlock Holmes (Benedict Cumberbatch) and Harry Potter’s creator (J.K. Rowling) against a Monty Python (John Cleese), but through all that noise, all that sound and fury, here’s what investors need to know next for when we finally exit the Brexit discussion.

  • Were the hedges high enough? Throughout 2016, institutional investors hedged their sterling exposures and the demand for UK equities and gilts soared. The only noticeable change in behavior was in the currency markets, where investors, wisely as it has turned out, increased their hedge ratios to protect themselves against sterling depreciation. The key question now is whether international investors respond to the uncertainty created by the Leave vote by also reducing their underlying holdings of UK assets.

  • Sterling loses its luster again? So far this year, the Brexit threat has meant that sterling has been between four- to eight-percent weaker against the US dollar than anticipated by movements in expected US/UK differentials. However in the five days before the Vote, sterling appreciated sharply removing much of this discount as markets moved to price in Remain. Having been wrong-footed sterling weakness has quickly resumed and we expect that to continue as UK interest rate expectations fall further.

  • Ready for interest rate cuts? The Bank of England repeatedly warned what a risk Brexit would be for the economy and financial markets more broadly. So much so that market expectations of interest rate reductions became coupled with the probability of a Brexit vote. Now Brexit risk has become a reality it may be difficult for the Bank of England to walk back its rhetoric about the negative economic consequences and markets at least will assume further policy stimulus as a result.

  • A reduced appetite for risk? Expect to see more investors become defensive after the Brexit vote. State Street Global Markets’ 22-factor behavioural risk scorecard showed that investors became less risk seeking ahead of the referendum across assets, but did not become outright risk averse like they were in January and early February. Given Brexit has been flagged as a global event risk by so many policy makers, it may seem natural to reduce risk at least modestly given the risk has been realised.

  • Watch the “symptoms” not the system? For much of 2016, Brexit’s been the belle of the “key risk event” ball, and that’s been an abnormality as risk typically doesn’t announce its arrival date. Rather than focus on the causes of systemic risk that is why we prefer to measure a symptom, namely that markets become narrowly driven when systemic risk rises. Having remained elevated for a record period of time from August 2016 through to March 2016, systemic risk has finally begun to normalise in the past quarter. The removal of Brexit risk at the margin, we would assume, will encourage this process further.

  • Where to worry next? Throughout the Brexit saga, one truth rings clear, this isn’t the only issue worthy of investors’ attention. During State Street Global Markets’ Research Retreat roadshow in May and June, only 12% of global investors suggested Brexit was their biggest concern. Investors still have a host of other worries to keep them occupied after we exit the Brexit discussion – from disorderly currency moves to Fed interest rate hikes to a CNY devaluation or debt crisis to the ineffectiveness of central bank policies. Clearly, Brexit hasn’t been the only nail biter for institutional investors. Of these options, in every location outside of London where we conducted the survey the concern that most troubled investors was the idea that policy has become less effective. To that end one the challenges policy makers now face is how they deal with the financial market fallout from the Brexit vote.*

    *State Street Global Markets, June 2016