Leverage - a thread that will shape outcomes in Irish and global international finance in 2025-26
The Irish Government is in the midst of reviewing and revising its annual IFS five year policy strategy, and the timing could not be more opportune, coinciding as it does with the life of a new Government, and a moment of unprecedented uncertainty, largely because of the sea changes brought about in geopolitics by the new US administration. In the short term outcomes will critically depend on the extent to which the US administration avails of the ‘off ramps’ offered by negotiation partners, most importantly China and the European Union in trade talks regarding the US tariffs. As the following pages indicate, these issues are closely connected to conditions in all financial and financial services markets. The articles in this Review & Outlook all address issues that are intimately connected with the critical matters currently on global agendas worldwide.
That, in itself depending on whether the US administration falls back to a position that represents its tariffs strategy as just initially tactical - a point made during President Trump’s first term by the then Commerce Secretary. This issue of the Yearbook contains an interview with the President of the Eurogroup, and Irish Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe (page 12) on the topic of the euro, in the context of his candidacy for a third term of President of the Eurogroup, effective July 12th 2025. In it the minister addresses issues including the potential reserve currency role of the euro, future trade talks between the EU and the US, and coming reforms to the euro, its membership, and its role in relation to the new EC Commission’s strategy to strengthen the European economy.