When asked which financial centres would likely benefit from Brexit, 85 per cent of those surveyed said Frankfurt would likely benefit, with 71 per cent nominating Paris and Dublin, followed by Luxembourg on 52 per cent and Amsterdam on 51 per cent. There has been an 8 percentage point increase in Dublin’s rating since the previous survey in February 2017.
85 per cent of those surveyed said that London is the most likely loser from Brexit – just 8 per cent said that Dublin would be a loser from Brexit. Those in the UK were most likely to rate Dublin and Frankfurt as winners, while those in the EU were most likely to rate Frankfurt and Paris as winners.
There has also been a significant increase in the numbers who believe financial services companies with a strong UK presence will reduce that presence – from 57 per cent in February 2017 to 63 per cent now.
According to Gary Baker, Managing Director, CFA Institute, EMEA: “The survey shows that investors still expect the UK to lose jobs, firms and access to
the best talent. Firms are going to have to make decisions on long-term investment and it’s probably then we will see the secondary effects of Brexit on the financial services industry.”
“We have gone from Brexit hysteria to hard analysis in the space of a year. Firms are looking at their options now but probably we will not see those final decisions until the very last moment before Brexit. One key factor that will influence decisions on locations is access to talent – 64 per cent of the UK respondents to the survey said Brexit will restrict them from hiring the best talent compared to just 9 per cent of EU (excluding the UK) respondents and 22 per cent globally.”
Gary Baker continued: “One striking pattern from the survey is that the further away from the EU and UK you go, the more convinced investors are that a comprehensive trade and services deal will actually be done – particularly investors in the USA, China, Australia, Far East.”